When Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes meet at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday, you'll be witnessing the fifth installment of the NFL's best quarterback rivalry since Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. To be clear, we're not saying Allen and Mahomes is on the Brady-Manning level, but a strong case can be made this is the best SINCE Brady-Manning, who last met in the 2015 AFC Championship Game.
It's not quite an exact science, but we looked at seven reasons related to Allen-Mahomes dominance, how it resembles Brady-Manning, all while comparing it with notable QB rivalries overlapping and extending past the Brady-Manning rivalry.
| NOTABLE QB RIVALRIES SINCE PEYTON MANNING/TOM BRADY | |
|---|---|
| Series | |
Drew Brees vs. Matt Ryan | Brees 14-9 |
Joe Flacco vs. Ben Roethlisberger | Roethlisberger 12-7 |
Tom Brady vs. Ben Roethlisberger | Brady 9-3 |
Tom Brady vs. Drew Brees | Brees 5-3 |
Cam Newton vs. Russell Wilson | Wilson 6-2 |
Philip Rivers vs. Ben Roethlisberger | Roethlisberger 4-3 |
Tom Brady vs. Patrick Mahomes | Tied 3-3 |
Tom Brady vs. Eli Manning | Manning 3-2 |
Tom Brady vs. Aaron Rodgers | Brady 3-2 |
Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes | Mahomes 3-1 |
Justin Herbert vs. Patrick Mahomes | Mahomes 3-1 |
Lamar Jackson vs. Patrick Mahomes | Mahomes 3-1 |
You might not agree with me, but I'll guarantee you learn some things along the way that'll get you excited for Sunday's game.
1. Best two QBs in NFL right now
You can't be mentioned in the same breath as Brady-Manning without at least being the best two quarterbacks in the game together at a certain point. After all, Brady and Manning are two of the greatest QBs in NFL history.
For the first time, you can confidently say Allen and Mahomes are the best two quarterbacks on the planet at this very moment. That's something you probably couldn't say without a doubt in recent years with the performance of Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady, who are off to slow starts this year. Allen and Mahomes rank 1-2 in MVP odds and touchdown passes this season. Their teams are also 1-2 in Super Bowl odds. They've had monster games this season, combining to win three of the five AFC Offensive Player of the Week awards handed out already. They are both coming in hot, too. Each tossed four touchdown passes last week, and Allen's 348 first-half passing yards were a Bills franchise record.
This reasoning also immediately eliminates a good chunk of other QB rivalries I was considering. Joe Flacco-Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers-Roethlisberger, Mahomes-Justin Herbert, Eli Manning-Brady have arguably never been the top-two quarterbacks in the game at the same time.
2. Class of AFC for last three seasons
You need to be among the game's best quarterbacks for several seasons to be considered a great rivalry. Here's a list of categories where Allen and Mahomes rank 1-2 in the AFC since 2020, Allen's breakout season.
- Pass TDs
- Wins
- Playoff wins
- TD percentage
- Total TDs
- 1st downs
- 3rd-down conversion percentage
- 20-yard plays
- EPA/dropback
The AFC is loaded with young, superstar QBs but these two have been consistently at the top. Since 2020, either Allen or Mahomes has ranked first on the AFC's passing touchdowns season leaderboard for a total of 34 of 40 weeks. The only QBs to hold an outright lead not named Allen and Mahomes are Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson.
Several rivalries that didn't meet the bar here were Flacco-Roethlisberger, Eli Manning-Brady and Cam Newton-Russell Wilson.
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3. Produced a playoff classic
A great QB rivalry needs a signature playoff moment. Brady and Manning's is the 2006 AFC Championship Game where Manning led an 18-point comeback win on the way to his first Super Bowl title.
Sunday's matchup is the rematch of last season's playoff thriller -- a Chiefs' 42-36 overtime win -- one of the greatest games in NFL history. Allen and Mahomes combined to light up the scoreboard in the wildest two-minute drill in NFL history. The signature stats:
- The Bills and Chiefs combined for 31 points after the two-minute warning in the fourth quarter, the most in playoff history.
- Allen and Mahomes combined for four go-ahead touchdown passes in that span while going 15 of 20 passing for 290 yards.
- It's the only game in NFL history, regular season or postseason, where both QBs had 300 passing yards, three passing TDs, zero interceptions and 50 Rush yards.
- Mahomes led an OT-forcing drive that started with 13 seconds left in regulation. It was the latest start time for a game-tying or go-ahead drive in playoff history.
These rivalries never produced a great playoff game. Some haven't even met in the playoffs: Brees-Ryan, Rivers-Roethlisberger, Mahomes-Herbert, Mahomes-Jackson, Roethlisberger-Brady. And even though Brady-Brees shared a division for a year and jockeyed for the all-time passing touchdowns record, it's hard to call their 2020 playoff matchup thrilling.
4. Playoff pedigree
Brady and Manning met five times in the postseason with the winner going on to win the Super Bowl in four of those matchups (2003, 2004, 2006, 2015).
Allen's and Mahomes' playoff performances also go beyond one game. The Chiefs have eliminated the Bills in each of the last two postseasons. While Kansas City didn't win the Super Bowl in either of those instances, it definitely impacted the results. The Bills looked like a team that could have won it all last year.
Allen (106.6) and Mahomes (105.7) also rank 1-2 all time in highest postseason passer rating, passing Bart Starr after last season's thriller. Allen posted the highest passer rating in a single postseason all time (149.0) with last season's performance.
These QB rivalries feature one QB lacking the proper playoff resume: Herbert-Mahomes, Jackson-Mahomes and Rivers-Roethlisberger.
5. Fifth meeting in last three seasons
A great quarterback rivalry means you have to play a lot. Brady and Manning met 17 times (Brady 11-6 edge). It'll be hard for Allen and Mahomes to ever reach that number, but they are still meeting for the fifth time in three seasons. That matches the most matchups between two quarterbacks from different divisions in a three-season span all time. Others on the list include rivalries like Brady-Mahomes, Brady-Peyton Manning, Troy Aikman-Brett Favre, Aikman-Steve Young and Joe Montana-Phil Simms.
They could also be on a playoff collision course again. We've never seen QBs from different divisions meet six times in a three-year span. We also haven't seen the same quarterback matchup in three straight postseasons since Young and Favre in the mid-to-late 90s.
| Same Starting QB Matchup in 3 Straight Postseasons | |
|---|---|
Brett Favre (GB) vs. Steve Young (SF) | 1995-98 |
Troy Aikman (DAL) vs. Brett Favre (GB) | 1993-95 |
Troy Aikman (DAL) vs. Steve Young (SF) | 1992-94 |
Joe Montana (SF) vs. Wade Wilson (MIN) | 1987-89 |
Joe Montana (SF) vs. Phil Simms (NYG) | 1984-86 |
Terry Bradshaw (PIT) vs. Ken Stabler (OAK) | 1973-76 |
| Bobby Layne (DET) vs. Otto Graham (CLE) | 1952-54 |
The QB rivalry I haven't brought up that doesn't meet the bar here is Brady-Rodgers. They are two of the best QBs of all time and have combined for seven MVP awards, but have only met five times since Rodgers entered the league in 2005.
6. Entered NFL around same time
The Allen-Mahomes matchup has a high ceiling. Someday we could be mentioning it with rivalries like Marino-Kelly, Bradshaw-Stabler, Aikman-Favre, Favre-Young and Young-Aikman. Allen is 26 years old and Mahomes is 27, drafted one year apart. They should be competing for league supremacy for another decade. While the Brady-Mahomes matchup rivals Allen-Mahomes in all of the above categories, and even sports a Super Bowl matchup, they probably met for the sixth and final time in Week 4.
7. Most entertaining QBs to watch
Entertainment counts for something! They produce more wow plays than any other QBs in the NFL, which gives them a leg up on any rivalry. Both have rocket arms, and on any given Sunday you might see Allen hurdle a defender or Mahomes make an incredible off-balance throw. They rank 1-2 in touchdown passes outside the pocket since 2020 and their performance when under fire is second to none. They rank 1-2 in passer rating when pressured this season. Mahomes has more touchdown passes when pressured (six) than Matthew Stafford has overall (five). Allen's passer rating when pressured (116.8) would lead the NFL in all situations. Statistically at least, he's better with a 300-pound pass rusher in his face than any QB is in all circ*mstances. Let that sink in.
| QBs Under Pressure This Season | ||
|---|---|---|
Allen | Mahomes | |
Yards/att | 9.3 ** | 6.7 |
TD-Int | 4-0 ** | 6-1 ** |
Passer rating | 116.8 ** | 96.0 ** |
** Top 2 in NFL |
The replay on Allen's 98-yard strike to Gabe Davis in Week 5 is stunning. Check out the defender barreling into Allen right before he throws.
We can't stop watching this. 😍#GoBills | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/xUSRuwoJTC
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) October 10, 2022
There might not be a more impressive play this year than Mahomes' spin move and touchdown pass.
One more angle of that ridiculousness. @PatrickMahomes | @Chiefs pic.twitter.com/iOhQFXLCyh
— NFL (@NFL) October 3, 2022
You'd be hard-pressed to find the same entertainment value watching recent rivals like Ryan-Brees, Flacco-Roethlisberger or Rivers-Roethlisberger.
Of course, it won't be much of a rivalry if the Chiefs keep beating the Bills, but Buffalo is the favorite on Sunday, the first time in Mahomes' NFL career he's a home underdog.
There you have it. Enjoy Sunday's game knowing you're watching a blossoming QB rivalry which is already the best since Brady-Manning.
